Market Currents: OPEC shenanigans persist
Friday September 23, 2016
1) As OPEC / key producer shenanigans remain front and center, we are potentially seeing a new trend emerging: the current kings of overproduction (Saudi, Iran and Iraq) versus the pretenders to the throne (Libya, Nigeria and Russia).
In a twist not too dissimilar to what happened ahead of the Doha meeting earlier in the year, Saudi has said it is willing to make concessions in terms of its oil production, if Iran is willing to participate too (while knowing all too well that Iran is unlikely to agree). Saudi has actually gone a step further this time, saying it is willing to cut production (as opposed to a freeze) if Iran is willing to hold its production at 3.6mn bpd. It appears Iran has reacted how Saudi had hoped, by politely declining.
It’s always fun to revisit the chart below; it is incredible how much export loadings are up year-on-year for Saudi, Iraq and Iran:
All the while, loadings in recent days at Ras Lanuf is buoying optimism of returning Libyan exports (let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here, folks) while an absence of...